MODERN WEATHER FORECASTING

A subtitle for this blog might be, “Where is Ben Franklin When We Need Him?”

I read my local newspaper every morning faithfully, including the weather page. Of course, I already have the forecast for that day as I pick up my paper on the driveway: The paper is either double-wrapped or not!

Now there is weather forecasting on the cutting edge! That’s the way ol farmers done it.

Oh, but in the last couple of centuries we have made huge meteorological progress! We’ve even added “percentage chance of rain” to the forecast. Now, there is something to hang your hat on.

Problem is: On what part of it do you hang your hat?

Why, now we even have the forecast for the whole week. And we’ve added helpful wrinkles, in the form of icons for each day! We have colorful, jagged ones that indicate lightning; we have recognizable drops of rain that have an obvious meaning; we even have a snowflake icon; and when we add clouds, they will cover a given, predicted amount of the sun icon. As Garrison Keillor sings every week, “Could we ask for more?”

Problem is: When these icons are joined for each day in various combinations, what are we to make of it? Do we then have a better idea of the weather prognosis for that day?

I admit it; I am confused!

One day we have only a large, jagged lightning icon with, say, 60% chance of what – rain? Or, we might have 20% along with a partially obscured sun icon, plus the icons for three drops of rain. Then, we might have the same 20% with no drops whatsoever. For another day, we might have 30%, or even 50% with or without drops.

I admit it; I am confused.

One day when a meteorologist had spoken to our group, I asked if predicting the chance of rain by citing a percentage helped the consumer, or made it all a bit more convenient (read: CYA) for the meteorologist? If one were to criticize when predicted rain was not forthcoming – heaven forefend – the meteorologist could say, “Well, I didn’t say 100%.

Well, from the look that meteorologist and some in the audience gave me, one would think that I had engaged in the pleasurable part of borborygmus!

As I said, “Where is Ben Franklin when we need him?”

DBT